After a 3-5% decline in 2025, the personal luxury goods market is expected to return to moderate growth this year in China. According to the latest study by Bain & Company, beauty is the only category to have grown in 2025, while watches and leather goods have suffered particularly badly.
The worst is probably behind us for the Chinese personal luxury goods market. Still in decline in 2025, it is expected to return to “moderate growth” in 2026.
This is the main conclusion of the “China Personal Luxury Report” recently published by Bain & Company. More specifically, the consulting firm estimates that this market will decline by between 3% and 5% in China in 2025.
Early signs of recovery
But Bain also sees reasons to be more optimistic about the future: the market has “shown early signs of recovery in the third quarter, supported by favorable base effects (when comparing the second half of 2025 to the same period in 2024), as well as a more robust stock market and gradually improving sentiment.”
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