The insolent growth of the luxury sector, particularly over the last three years, is now facing a series of headwinds, mainly persistent inflation in at least two of its strategic markets, China and the United States. This difficult context leads Keaney to foresee a slowdown in the sector’s growth to +1 to 3% per year until 2027.
Winter is coming…
This is not a new episode of the Game of Thrones series, and even less an alarmist prediction for the crypto market, but rather a possible cooling of the luxury market in 2025.
In its report “Winning in a cooling market: Strategies for Luxury Brands”, the international strategy consulting firm Keaney outlines the underlying trends that are hampering the full recovery of the sector.
While the intensity and duration of this freeze are beyond prediction, it seems clear that the luxury sector must rethink its approach to restore its desirability. All this while the global uncertainty is accentuated by a Trump II government, as unpredictable as it is impulsive, particularly with regard to customs duties for products not manufactured on American soil.
Gripped growth engines
Accustomed to post-Covid hyper-growth, the global luxury market, estimated this year at 500 billion dollars, will, according to the Keaney report, have to settle for annual growth of only 1 to 3% until 2027.
This is due to inflation rates that remain high and persistent economic uncertainty. Discretionary spending affects personal luxury goods, particularly in ready-to-wear, leather goods and watches.
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