China: stronger growth expected in 2023

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China’s long-standing zero covid policy is almost over and the country’s economy is expected to recover to 4.9% growth this year.

 

According to the median forecast of about 50 economists interviewed by Reuters, China’s GDP is likely to grow by only 2.8% in 2022. A low figure, due to drastic health restrictions, which have changed the lifestyle and consumption patterns of the population and businesses.

 

According to the Reuters survey, the expected growth rate in China in 2022 should therefore be much lower than the official target of 5.5%. Not counting the 2.2% growth rate in 2020, which followed the initial pandemic-related shock, 2022 is expected to mark the worst annual performance of China’s economy since 1976.

 

According to the Reuters survey, due to the tightening of covid 19-related measures, China’s GDP probably grew by only 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with 3.9% growth in the third quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the country’s economy is expected to have contracted by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% between July and September.

 

Last December, at a closed-door meeting, Chinese leaders pledged to focus on stabilizing the economy, promising to step up reforms to ensure the goals are met. By 2023, China should aim for economic growth of at least 5 %, according to government sources.

 

New measures

 

China’s central bank has pledged to pursue a specific and aggressive policy in 2023 to support the economy, maintaining ample liquidity while reducing financing costs for businesses.

 

On December 20, the Central Bank decided to keep the rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. A decision in line with the expectations of market observers, who however expect further monetary easing to support the Chinese economy.

 

As for the reserve requirement ratio for banks, it was reduced by 25 basis points in early December: “Economic policy should become more favorable in 2023. We expect credit growth of 11-12% in 2023 compared to 9.6% in 2022, thanks to the gesture to banks and the improvement in credit demand,” said Larry Hu, chief economist for China at Macquarie.

 

China’s consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.3% this year from 2% in 2022, before stabilizing by 2024, again according to the Reuters survey.

 

China’s official GDP statistics for the year 2022, the fourth quarter and December will be released next Tuesday at 02:00 GMT.

 

 

Read also >China: a lifting of restrictions favorable to luxury?

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China’s long-standing zero covid policy is almost over and the country’s economy is expected to recover to 4.9% growth this year.

 

According to the median forecast of about 50 economists interviewed by Reuters, China’s GDP is likely to grow by only 2.8% in 2022. A low figure, due to drastic health restrictions, which have changed the lifestyle and consumption patterns of the population and businesses.

 

According to the Reuters survey, the expected growth rate in China in 2022 should therefore be much lower than the official target of 5.5%. Not counting the 2.2% growth rate in 2020, which followed the initial pandemic-related shock, 2022 is expected to mark the worst annual performance of China’s economy since 1976.

 

According to the Reuters survey, due to the tightening of covid 19-related measures, China’s GDP probably grew by only 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with 3.9% growth in the third quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the country’s economy is expected to have contracted by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% between July and September.

 

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China’s long-standing zero covid policy is almost over and the country’s economy is expected to recover to 4.9% growth this year.

 

According to the median forecast of about 50 economists interviewed by Reuters, China’s GDP is likely to grow by only 2.8% in 2022. A low figure, due to drastic health restrictions, which have changed the lifestyle and consumption patterns of the population and businesses.

 

According to the Reuters survey, the expected growth rate in China in 2022 should therefore be much lower than the official target of 5.5%. Not counting the 2.2% growth rate in 2020, which followed the initial pandemic-related shock, 2022 is expected to mark the worst annual performance of China’s economy since 1976.

 

According to the Reuters survey, due to the tightening of covid 19-related measures, China’s GDP probably grew by only 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with 3.9% growth in the third quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the country’s economy is expected to have contracted by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% between July and September.

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Thanks to its extensive knowledge of these sectors, the Luxus + editorial team deciphers for its readers the main economic and technological stakes in fashion, watchmaking, jewelry, gastronomy, perfumes and cosmetics, hotels, and prestigious real estate.

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