The start of the year confirms the polarization already observed. Brands capable of maintaining “ultra-luxury” desirability ” (Hermès, Prada, Brunello Cucinelli) or very clear positioning (Moncler, Richemont jewelry) continue to grow, while groups undergoing a creative transition (Kering, Burberry) or highly exposed to tourist flows are suffering more from the decline in activity in the Middle East and a strong dollar.
The champions of ultra-desirability
Hermès is consolidating its status as the benchmark with revenue up +6% at constant exchange rates (cer) thanks to the United States and Japan. The slight reported decline (–1%) reflects the currency effect, but the brand remains on a trajectory outperforming the market, driven by leather goods and a very strong price/scarcity mix.
For its part, Prada confirms the strength of its portfolio with revenue up 14%. The success of Miu Miu, in particular, demonstrates the group’s ability to attract a younger clientele while maintaining a premium positioning. The integration of Versace reinforces this strategy by expanding exposure to the most profitable categories, notably women’s accessories.
On a different note, Brunello Cucinelli continues to benefit from the craze for “quiet luxury.” Its ultra-selective positioning, based on craftsmanship and controlled distribution, allows it to target a clientele that is particularly resilient to economic cycles.
The Diversified Heavyweights
For its part, the giant LVMH reported a 6% decline in reported revenue, impacted by negative currency effects. While certain divisions, notably fashion, are showing signs of a slowdown, other segments such as jewelry and selective retail (Sephora) continue to act as a buffer. The depth of the portfolio and marketing strength thus cushion the impact of the Middle East.
For its part, Compagnie Financière Richemont is fully benefiting from its exposure to jewelry, currently the most resilient segment in the luxury sector. Less dependent on fashion trends and more rooted in an investment mindset, this segment attracts a more stable international clientele. This characteristic gives Richemont a defensive profile, which is particularly sought after in the current environment.
Finally, Moncler confirms the relevance of its positioning centered on premium outerwear. The group manages to maintain solid growth thanks to a balance between innovation and distribution control.
Groups in creative restructuring
The first quarter marks an initial stabilization for Kering: (–6%). Gucci remains under pressure (-8%), but jewelry surges by +22% and North America delivers a positive surprise. The “ReconKering” platform aims for a gradual recovery in margins through product rationalization and a creative revival, but Asia continues to lag.
The same logic applies at Burberry, where the first signs of improvement are emerging, particularly thanks to a refocus on the brand’s fundamentals. The work undertaken on identity—particularly around outerwear and British codes—is beginning to bear fruit. However, the success of the turnaround will depend on the ability to move upmarket sustainably and strengthen the contribution of high-margin categories.
Outlook: Key Variables to Watch in 2026
For the remainder of 2026, three key variables will need to be monitored closely, as they could significantly influence the trajectory of the luxury sector.
The first concerns Chinese tourism, the return of which remains one of the main potential catalysts. The gradual easing of Schengen visa requirements, combined with a weaker yuan, could encourage travel flows to Europe as early as the summer season. Such momentum could primarily benefit groups most exposed to international tourist traffic, notably LVMH, Kering, and Burberry, a significant portion of whose sales still depends on these traveling customers.
The second variable relates to the sector’s heterogeneous fiscal calendars. Some companies, such as Richemont and Burberry, report their results on a staggered fiscal year basis, which complicates the immediate interpretation of trends. Their upcoming earnings releases, expected on May 22 and May 14, respectively, will provide a clearer picture of the reality of the first calendar quarter.
Finally, the third key variable concerns raw material inflation. The 5% to 8% increase in precious metals and exotic leather since the start of the year is testing the various companies’ ability to set prices. While the most high-end players still have some flexibility to pass on these costs, those whose margins are already under pressure will have to strike a more delicate balance between maintaining profitability and preserving sales volumes.
In short, 2026 is widening the quality divide, meaning that brands with a clear narrative and a retail network are seeing their sales grow, while those in the midst of a “reset” must quickly demonstrate the effectiveness of their creative solutions to prevent the gap from widening further.
Read also > [COLUMN] Luxury Watches and Jewelry: Financialization, Polarization, and Changing Consumption Patterns
Featured Photo: Yves-Cédric Schultz/Unsplash
