The conflict between Hamas and Israel seems to be taking on a wider geographical dimension, extending beyond the region’s borders. Following the Hamas attack on October 7, Israeli reprisals resulted in a considerable number of civilian casualties. The situation is also having repercussions in Europe, with anti-Semitic attacks and security threats in various countries, while Saudi Arabia and China have come out in support of Palestine. In addition, suspicions hang over Iran’s involvement in the Hamas attack, raising concerns about diplomatic relations in the Middle East.
More than a week after the Hamas attack on Israeli territory on October 7, the conflict between Hamas and Israel seems to be taking on proportions that extend beyond the borders of the former land of Canaan.
In their lightning raid, Hamas fighters killed over 1,300 people, most of them civilians, including children.
In retaliation, the Israel Defense Army, commonly referred to by the acronym Tsahal, has been bombarding the Gaza Strip, a small, impoverished territory under siege wedged between Israel and Egypt, for days. This retaliation has already left 2,215 Palestinians dead, most of them civilians, including 724 children, according to local authorities.
Hundreds of people on both sides are still missing, and bodies are still being identified.
No ceasefire
On Monday morning, Egyptian sources reported that Israel, the United States and Egypt had reached agreement on a ceasefire in the south of the Gaza Strip, scheduled to begin at 6 a.m. local time. This several-hour ceasefire coincides with the reopening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt, as mentioned by the same sources. Hamas, through its press office, said it was unaware of any such truce. Rafah, on the border between Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and Gaza, is the only crossing point not under Israeli control.
However, Benjamin Netanyahu’s office denied this information, claiming that there was “no ceasefire” at this stage between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas. “There is no ceasefire and no entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza in exchange for the exit of foreigners,” the Israeli Prime Minister’s office said in a short statement.
Rather than a ceasefire, this is more likely to be an agreement to avoid targeting the Gaza Strip’s civilian evacuation zone. Avichay Adraee, spokesman for the Israeli army, said on X (formerly Twitter) that the Israeli army was committed to not targeting “the axis” linking the north and south of the Gaza Strip between 8am and 12pm this Monday. This route is widely used to evacuate people from the north of the Gaza Strip.
While Tsahal is inviting hundreds of thousands of Gazans to leave the north of the territory, the UN and other international organizations have deemed it “technically and logistically impossible” to move such a large population in such a short space of time over such a restricted area. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that a stock of medical supplies sufficient to meet the needs of 300,000 people in the Gaza Strip has been transported to an Egyptian airport near the Palestinian enclave, pending humanitarian access. According to the WHO, these supplies will be delivered as soon as humanitarian access is possible via the Rafah border crossing on the Egyptian border in southern Gaza.
Saudi Arabia and China support Palestine
A major player in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has chosen to put talks on possible normalization with Israel on hold, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinian Hamas, according to a source close to the Saudi government.
The kingdom “has decided to suspend talks on possible normalization with Israel and has informed U.S. officials accordingly”, said the source, while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently in Riyadh as part of a regional tour.
China has also adopted a favorable stance towards the Palestinians. On Saturday October 14, Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for “an end to the fighting as soon as possible” and respect for “international humanitarian law”.
On the same day, the head of Chinese diplomacy was more explicit in a telephone conversation with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan. “Israel’s action [the massive strikes on the Gaza Strip in retaliation for the Hamas attack] has gone beyond the realm of self-defense” and its leaders must stop “collectively punishing the people of Gaza”, said Wang Yi. On Sunday, Beijing’s chief diplomat also held talks with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahi: China supports “the just cause of the Palestinian people in preserving their national rights”, he said.
Is Iran complicit in the Hamas attack?
At the heart of the diplomatic tensions are US suspicions that Iran may have supported Hamas in preparing its attack on Israel, an ally of the US government. In response, US and Qatari officials have reportedly agreed to block Iran’s access to $6 billion, previously frozen by Washington. “We have strict control over the funds, and we reserve the right to freeze them,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at a press conference in Tel Aviv on Thursday.
As a reminder, at the beginning of September, in accordance with an August agreement with Iran on a prisoner exchange, the United States had released $6 billion of Iranian humanitarian aid funds, which had been frozen in South Korea. At the time, this money had been transferred to accounts in Qatar.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been working with Hamas since August to plan Saturday’s attacks on Israel. Teheran gave its approval for the attack at a meeting in Beirut on October 2, according to senior officials from Hamas and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite party based in Lebanon, quoted by the WSJ.
Officially, Iran has positioned itself as a fervent supporter of the Hamas offensive, while rejecting all accusations of involvement.
These statements do not augur well for diplomatic relations in the Middle East, and could also put upward pressure on oil prices, as the Persian Gulf region accounts for 40% of the world’s oil supply. By Monday October 9, oil prices had already risen by 4%. It’s all the more difficult to do without these volumes today, given that Iran contributes just over 4% of global oil production and holds around 12% of global reserves, so an absence of these volumes would push up barrel prices.
Macron addresses the French
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