The half-year results season in the luxury sector reveals a more polarized landscape than ever: strong growth for jewelers, very mixed results for the industry giants, and still fragile resilience in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties.
🪙 Richemont: jewelry in orbit
The Richemont group posted organic growth of 6% in Q2 (≈€5.4 billion, +11% for Cartier/Van Cleef at constant exchange rates).
The watch (–7%) and fashion/accessories (–1%) segments remain cautious, but geographical momentum—particularly in the Americas (+17%) and Europe (+11%)—puts Richemont at the forefront of the first wave of publications.
The Swiss group confirms that Cartier and Van Cleef are benefiting from their robust premium positioning, particularly in the West.
🌱 Hermès, Prada, Brunello Cucinelli: models of satisfaction
Brunello Cucinelli is already up 10.7% for the half-year, confirming its ambitions of 10% growth for 2025–2026.
Hermès, which will publish its results on July 30, is expected to shine with +9% in Q2 (HSBC), a faster pace than in Q1 (+7%).
Prada, meanwhile, is expected to grow by +10%, despite a slight slowdown compared to Q1 (+13%).
🤏 LVMH: storm clouds gathering for leather goods
There are high expectations surrounding the publication of LVMH’s results, scheduled for July 24 after the close of Euronext Paris. Analysts at HSBC and Barclays anticipate an organic decline of 7% in revenue in Q2, with an 11% decline in the Fashion & Leather division.
These projections reflect the trends already observed in Q1 and reinforce areas of fragility, particularly those related to international tourist travel, exchange rate fluctuations, and uncertainties surrounding customs tariffs.
Moët Hennessy is expected to remain under pressure, hit by a combination of “aggressive acquisitions,” pricing policies, and internal reorganizations (13% reduction in headcount).
🧵 Kering / Gucci: the decline is expected to continue
Kering, which plans to reveal its first-half results on July 29, is expecting a difficult second quarter: -14% overall, -25% for Gucci.
Luca de Meo took over on July 15 to steer the group’s recovery. The creative renewal at Gucci with Demna (who arrived in July) will be closely watched in the fall.
⏳ Structural factors and outlook
The slowdown in demand in China, the fall in the dollar and tariff uncertainties (threats of duties of up to 30%) are weighing heavily. HSBC expects the sector to stabilize in the second half of the year, with growth picking up again in Q2 2026.
Prices are at their peak (“greedflation”), limiting the room for adjustment for luxury players. Previous price increases are now limiting the margin for maneuver. However, new pricing policies may be necessary in the next six months.
The sector remains uncertain in the short term, but the fundamentals are solid. Optimism is based on a recovery in Chinese and US consumption, as well as the base effect from Q3 onwards. The 2026 recovery is particularly well prepared for Gucci and Dior, which are banking on new artistic directors (Demna, Luca de Meo) as levers for recovery — creative commitment must become their strategic asset.
📌 In summary: the luxury industry is going through unprecedented turbulence, catalyzed by the international economic situation and the excesses of the past. Only strong polarization—jewelry versus leather goods, historic brands versus creative restarts—will allow us to distinguish tomorrow’s winners. The challenge: maintaining the momentum of innovation and adjusting commercial strategy to prepare for the recovery!
Read also > The luxury weekly: Green lights in Europe – Luxus Plus
Featured photo : © Luxus Plus
