The Banque de France doubles its growth forecast for 2023 
More global demand, less inflation: two factors that encourage the banking institution to consider an increase in GDP of 0.6% instead of 0.3% this year. The Banque de France believes neither in a lasting crisis linked to the pension reform nor in a banking contagion after the bankruptcy of the SVB.
Growth is back faster than expected, according to the Banque de France.
The banking institution doubled today its forecast for France’s gross domestic product (GDP). It should finally grow by 0.6%, instead of the 0.3% initially envisaged. The Bank of France remains more cautious than the OECD, which on Friday raised its forecast by one point to 0.7%, and then the government, which is banking on 1% growth.
“The recovery phase would clearly start again in 2024”, thanks to the take-off of household consumption, the Banque de France estimates. The Bank is still expecting growth to jump to 1.2% in 2024 and then to 1.7% (instead of 1.8%) in 2025.
This year, the better performances announced are linked to the conjunction of “a little more growth” of the world demand and “a little less inflation,” according to Olivier Garnier, the central bank’s chief economist.
Food inflation: a peak in mid-2023
Food inflation, which has taken over from energy inflation as the driver of price increases, is expected to peak “towards the end of the first half of the year”.
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