Over the first six months of 2025, the luxury landscape has become clearly divided: the most exclusive brands are maintaining enviable commercial momentum, while more “aspirational” brands are suffering from slowing Chinese demand, normalization in the US, and the weight of a strong dollar.
Hermès: countercyclical luxury
With €8.03 billion in revenue (+8%) and an operating margin of 41.4%, Hermès is once again pushing the boundaries of sector profitability, posting profit growth quarter after quarter and an operating margin above 40% for the ninth consecutive year. This is a sign of intact pricing power (Birkin bags continue to sell for €10,000) and cost discipline.
Its geographic momentum is also balanced, with double-digit growth in Japan (+16%), the Americas (+12%), and Europe excluding France (+13%). Its balance sheet remains solid, with net cash of over €10 billion and virtually no net debt, which offers great strategic flexibility. It should be noted, however, that its Perfumes & Beauty and Watches divisions are down 4% and 8% respectively, proving that diversification beyond leather remains more volatile.
Kering: a painful transition
Unsurprisingly, the “year zero” of Kering‘s recovery has resulted in a 15% decline in sales and an operating margin halved to 12.8%. Gucci, which still accounts for 40% of the group’s revenue, plunged 25% after several lackluster seasons.
However, the arrival of the new creative director, Demna, is sending positive signals (Giglio bag), but the loss of leverage from stores is being felt. Saint Laurent (-10%) partially cushioned the blow thanks to a 20% margin, while Bottega Veneta (+2%) proved that desirability can survive a downturn.
To restore confidence, Kering promoted Luca de Meo (former CEO of Renault) to the position of CEO, issued €750 million in bonds, and accelerated the vertical integration of Kering Eyewear (+3%). Investors will have to wait several quarters before seeing margins exceed 15% again.
Prada: Miu Miu’s revenge
The Milan-based group posted €2.74 billion in revenue (+9%) and adjusted EBIT of €619 million (22.6%). The Prada brand declined by 1.9%, but Miu Miu exploded by +49%, becoming, for the first time, the main contributor to growth. The line appeals to a younger clientele thanks to its irresistible wardrobe (pocket bags, satin ballet flats) and increased visibility on TikTok.
In addition, Prada is preparing for a major shift with the acquisition of Versace (€1.25 billion), scheduled between September and November 2025: the goal is to double the group’s exposure to high-margin women’s accessories and accelerate growth in the United States. At the same time, the acquisition of a 10% stake in leather supplier Rino Mastrotto strengthens vertical integration and traceability; production capacity will be increased by 20% by 2027.
Richemont: jewelry is holding its own
The Swiss group, whose fiscal year runs from April to March, has only published its sales for Q1 2025/26 at €5.41 billion, up 6%. Jewelry houses (Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Buccellati, Vhernier) accounted for 72% of quarterly sales and grew by 11%, confirming that high-end jewelry remains the most resilient category. Conversely, watch specialists fell 7%, penalized by China and Japan, but the trend is improving outside Asia. The “Other” business (fashion and accessories – Chloé, Alaïa, Peter Millar) declined by only 1%, evidence of a more virtuous repositioning in discreet luxury ready-to-wear.
The slowdown in China continues to weigh on the watch division, whose margin fell to 5.3%. Richemont is responding by streamlining its product range, offering more differentiated prices for white gold and “fancy” diamonds, and transferring capacity to fine jewelry. The strength of the Swiss franc remains a headwind, with the company partially hedging itself through a gradual increase in catalog prices outside the euro zone.
Moncler: stability and discipline
The Italian group’s revenues amounted to €1.22 billion (+1%), with a margin of 18.3%. The Moncler brand (85% of sales) grew by 1% in the first half of the year, but the slowdown in the second quarter (-2%) was mainly due to lower tourist numbers in EMEA and Japan.
Management is forecasting single-digit growth in 2025, but anticipates a rebound thanks to the expected improvement in Japanese tourism and the expansion of e-commerce in Latin America. The balance sheet remains solid (net cash: €981 million), offering flexibility for targeted acquisitions or a possible share buyback.
Burberry: first signs of the “Burberry Forward” plan
In its Q1 FY26 (April-June), the British fashion house limited the decline in its revenue to -1% (compared to -21% in Q4 FY25). Europe returned to positive territory (+1%), America grew by 4%, but China remained negative (-5%).
The “Burberry Forward” plan is showing encouraging early signs. The first “Autumn 25” collection, designed entirely by the new product team, focuses on “big ideas” (Knight Blue tartan, the Rockingham bag) and is already showing a sell-through rate 500 basis points higher than in the 2024 seasons. In addition, the group is focusing on network optimization: 40 renovations are planned for 2025, including the conversion of the Seoul flagship store and the rollout of the new VM concept focused on outerwear.
In summary, “ultra-luxury “ (Hermès, Prada) is benefiting from inelastic demand and very high margins, while players undergoing repositioning (Kering, Burberry) are paying for a creative ”time-out” that amplifies their negative leverage. Richemont and Moncler show that a mix focused on jewelry or technical outerwear cushions the blows. The second half of the year will depend on the return of Chinese tourists, inventory control, and the ability of brands to maintain a credible product narrative.
Read also > [COLUMN] Status quo for major luxury houses in the first quarter of 2025
Featured photo: Caroline Hernandez/Unsplash
