The recent escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has sent shockwaves through global markets. Following targeted air strikes on Iranian territory and the death of the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Persian Gulf region is now at the heart of a major crisis that threatens global energy supplies and international economic stability.
Saturday, February 28, will go down in history : tensions took a new turn around Iran after a series of strikes by Israel, with US support, targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Iranian authorities denounced this as a violation of their sovereignty and threatened targeted retaliation. Many other countries in the Middle East have found themselves embroiled in the conflict, with consequences for the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon, among others. This renewed direct confrontation is reviving fears of a wider conflagration in the Middle East, with immediate repercussions on financial and energy markets.
A surge in energy prices
At the heart of this crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and through which nearly 20 to 30 million barrels of crude oil pass daily, representing about 20% of global oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas exports.
Iran has now issued warnings prohibiting ships from passing through this strategic corridor, leading to a virtual suspension of commercial transit. Shipping companies have responded by avoiding the area, with some major carriers canceling their crossings in the face of skyrocketing insurance premiums and the risk of attacks.
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