Since the Russian invasion two years ago, Ukraine has been plunged into a deadly conflict marked by incessant fighting and major geopolitical stakes. Despite military setbacks and diplomatic tensions, Western allies continue to provide crucial support to Kiev in its struggle against Russian aggression. The situation is worrying, as this assistance could be called into question if Donald Trump were to be elected President of the United States…
On February 24, 2022, the Russian army massively invaded Ukraine as part of a “special operation” led by Putin. Two years later, it is evident that the operation did not unfold as planned, and the capture of the capital Kiev proved to be more difficult than anticipated, resulting in failure. The conflict has evolved into a war of attrition, with fighting concentrated in the cities of Bucha, Zaporizhzhia, and Mariupol. The situation has become entrenched, and the war has turned into one of attrition.
Since the failure of the counter-offensive last June, the front has become static, and the war has resulted in economic stagnation, inflation, and increasingly high costs for supporting Kiev. Additionally, the conflict in Gaza has competed with the Ukrainian crisis for attention in Western media.
The war at Europe’s doorstep has disrupted the balance of diplomatic relations. Now, the West provides almost unconditional support to the aggressed country. In 2008, Germany and France categorically refused to welcome Ukraine into the Atlantic Alliance, seeking to appease Russia. However, their position has radically changed, and the question is no longer whether Ukraine belongs in NATO, but rather when it can join. A similar shift is observed for Georgia’s and, to a lesser extent, Bosnia’s candidacies. Finland and Sweden, which previously pursued a strict policy of neutrality between the United States and Russia, have also changed their stance and submitted their applications to NATO following the Russian invasion. It appears that the conflict has strengthened the sense of unity within the European Union and beyond.
Fury on the Frontlines
The Ukrainian army currently faces an extremely complex situation on the frontlines. The task of retaking the nearly 20% of territory occupied by Moscow proves to be immense.
“The Russian occupying forces continue to intensify their efforts and outnumber the Ukrainian forces,” General Syrsky stated on Telegram, noting Ukraine’s difficulties in replenishing its army ranks. “We are doing everything possible to prevent the enemy from advancing on our territory and to maintain our positions,” he emphasized, acknowledging that his forces are struggling to contain the multiple Russian assaults in the East.
Since October, Russian forces have been launching massive assaults and bombings to conquer Avdiivka, where the position of Ukrainian defenders has deteriorated since January. The mayor of the city, Vitaly Barabach, recently mentioned a “critical” situation in some neighborhoods. Nevertheless, Kiev can still boast of continuing to inflict damage on the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, as well as on its aviation. The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force announced on Wednesday, February 21, that Kiev had destroyed a Su-34 fighter-bomber. This would be the seventh Russian aircraft pulverized in less than a week.
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