Investors are gearing up for a high-risk sequence on world markets, with trade uncertainties, budgetary tensions in Europe and weak signals on the US economy. The coming weeks are likely to be decisive, in a climate of potentially high volatility, with potentially brutal reactions on currencies and equities.
Asian markets opened Thursday’s session in a cautious mood : the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific equities excluding Japan edged up 0.1%, while Japan’s Nikkei gave up 0.1%. In mainland China, leading stocks gained 0.5%, buoyed by hopes of political support, despite disappointing indicators : services activity slowed in June to its slowest pace in nine months. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index remained broadly stable.
On the futures markets, contracts on the major US indices posted slight gains : +0.1% for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, continuing the upward momentum begun the previous day. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures were up 0.2%, reflecting moderate optimism despite growing political tensions. On the CAC 40, a minimal rise was observed at midday, to 0.065%.
Trade tensions and political risk
The release of US employment figures on Thursday will be a major issue. Analysts are expecting 110,000 jobs to be created in June and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%, following a disappointing private sector report. A confirmed slowdown in the labor market would reinforce expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as this month, which could weaken the dollar and boost purchases of Treasury bonds.
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