{"id":174717,"date":"2025-08-29T09:00:57","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T07:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/?p=174717"},"modified":"2025-09-29T18:03:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T16:03:42","slug":"column-mixed-first-half-for-the-luxury-sector-ultra-luxury-holds-steady-premium-faces-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/column-mixed-first-half-for-the-luxury-sector-ultra-luxury-holds-steady-premium-faces-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"[COLUMN] Mixed first half for the luxury sector: ultra-luxury holds steady, premium faces uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Over the first six months of 2025, the luxury landscape has become clearly divided: the most exclusive brands are maintaining enviable commercial momentum, while more \u201caspirational\u201d brands are suffering from slowing Chinese demand, normalization in the US, and the weight of a strong dollar.<\/h4>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Herm\u00e8s: countercyclical luxury<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>With \u20ac8.03 billion in revenue (+8%) and an operating margin of 41.4%, Herm\u00e8s is once again pushing the boundaries of sector profitability, posting profit growth quarter after quarter and an operating margin above 40% for the ninth consecutive year. This is a sign of<b> intact pricing power<\/b> (Birkin bags continue to sell for \u20ac10,000) and cost discipline.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Its<b> geographic momentum<\/b> is also<b> balanced, with double-digit growth in Japan<\/b> (+16%), <b>the Americas<\/b> (+12%), and <b>Europe excluding France<\/b> (+13%). Its balance sheet remains solid, with net cash of over \u20ac10 billion and virtually no net debt, which offers great strategic flexibility. It should be noted, however, that its Perfumes &amp; Beauty and Watches divisions are down 4% and 8% respectively, proving that diversification beyond leather remains more volatile.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Kering: a painful transition<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Unsurprisingly, the \u201cyear zero\u201d of<b> Kering<\/b>&#8216;s recovery has resulted in a <b>15% decline in sales<\/b> and an<b> operating margin halved<\/b> to 12.8%. <b>Gucci<\/b>, which<b> still accounts for 40% of the group&#8217;s revenue<\/b>, <b>plunged 25% after several lackluster seasons<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>However, the arrival of the new creative director, Demna, is sending positive signals (Giglio bag), but the loss of leverage from stores is being felt. Saint Laurent (-10%) partially cushioned the blow thanks to a 20% margin, while Bottega Veneta (+2%) proved that desirability can survive a downturn.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>To restore confidence, Kering promoted <b>Luca de Meo (former CEO of Renault)<\/b> to the position of CEO, issued \u20ac750 million in bonds, and accelerated the vertical integration of Kering Eyewear (+3%). <b>Investors will have to wait<\/b> several quarters before seeing margins exceed 15% again.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Prada: Miu Miu&#8217;s revenge<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The Milan-based group posted \u20ac2.74 billion in revenue (+9%) and adjusted EBIT of \u20ac619 million (22.6%). The Prada brand declined by 1.9%, but Miu Miu exploded by +49%, becoming, for the first time, the main contributor to growth. The line appeals to a younger clientele thanks to its irresistible wardrobe (pocket bags, satin ballet flats) and increased visibility on TikTok.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In addition, <b>Prada is preparing for a major shift with the acquisition of Versace<\/b> (\u20ac1.25 billion), <b>scheduled between September and November 2025<\/b>: the goal is to double the group&#8217;s exposure to high-margin women&#8217;s accessories and accelerate growth in the United States. At the same time, the <b>acquisition of a 10% stake in leather supplier Rino Mastrotto<\/b> strengthens vertical integration and traceability; production capacity will be increased by 20% by 2027.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Richemont: jewelry is holding its own<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The Swiss group, whose fiscal year runs from April to March, has only published <b>its sales<\/b> <b>for Q1 2025\/26<\/b> at<b> \u20ac5.41 billion, up 6%<\/b>. Jewelry houses (Cartier, Van Cleef &amp; Arpels, Buccellati, Vhernier) accounted for 72% of quarterly sales and grew by 11%, confirming that high-end jewelry remains the most resilient category. Conversely, watch specialists fell 7%, penalized by China and Japan, but the trend is improving outside Asia. The \u201cOther\u201d business (fashion and accessories \u2013 Chlo\u00e9, Ala\u00efa, Peter Millar) declined by only 1%, evidence of a more virtuous repositioning in discreet luxury ready-to-wear.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>The slowdown in China continues to weigh on the watch division<\/b>, whose margin fell to 5.3%. Richemont is responding by streamlining its product range, offering more differentiated prices for white gold and \u201cfancy\u201d diamonds, and <b>transferring capacity to fine jewelry<\/b>. The strength of the Swiss franc remains a headwind, with the company partially hedging itself through a gradual increase in catalog prices outside the euro zone.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Moncler: stability and discipline<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The Italian group&#8217;s revenues amounted to <b>\u20ac1.22 billion (+1%)<\/b>, with a<b> margin of 18.3%<\/b>. The <b>Moncler brand<\/b> (85% of sales) <b>grew by 1% in the first half of the year<\/b>, but the slowdown in the second quarter (-2%) was mainly due to lower tourist numbers in EMEA and Japan.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Management is forecasting single-digit growth in 2025, but anticipates a rebound<\/b> thanks to the expected improvement in Japanese tourism and the expansion of e-commerce in Latin America. The<b> balance sheet<\/b> remains <b>solid<\/b> (net cash: \u20ac981 million), offering flexibility for targeted acquisitions or a possible share buyback.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Burberry: first signs of the \u201cBurberry Forward\u201d plan<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In its <b>Q1 FY26 (April-June)<\/b>, <b>the British fashion house limited the decline in its revenue<\/b> <b>to -1%<\/b> <b>(compared to -21% in Q4 FY25)<\/b>. <b>Europe returned to positive territory<\/b> (+1%), <b>America grew<\/b> by 4%, but <b>China<\/b> remained <b>negative (-5%)<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cBurberry Forward\u201d plan is showing <b>encouraging early signs<\/b>. The first \u201cAutumn 25\u201d collection, designed entirely by the new product team, focuses on <b>\u201cbig ideas\u201d (Knight Blue tartan, the Rockingham bag)<\/b> and is already showing <b>a sell-through rate 500 basis points higher than in the 2024 seasons<\/b>. In addition, the group is focusing on network optimization: <b>40 renovations are planned for 2025<\/b>, including the conversion of the Seoul flagship store and the rollout of the new VM concept focused on outerwear.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In summary, <strong>&#8220;ultra-luxury \u201c (Herm\u00e8s, Prada) is benefiting from inelastic demand and very high margins<\/strong>, while <b>players undergoing repositioning (Kering, Burberry) are paying for a creative \u201dtime-out&#8221;<\/b> <b>that amplifies their<\/b> <b>negative leverage.<\/b> <b>Richemont and Moncler<\/b> show that <b>a mix focused on jewelry or technical outerwear cushions the blows.<\/b> The second half of the year will depend on the return of Chinese tourists, inventory control, and the ability of brands to maintain a credible product narrative.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Read also &gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/chronicle-status-quo-for-major-luxury-brands-in-the-first-quarter-of-2025\/\">[COLUMN] Status quo for major luxury houses in the first quarter of 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Featured photo: Caroline Hernandez\/Unsplash<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the first six months of 2025, the luxury landscape has become clearly divided: the most exclusive brands are maintaining enviable commercial momentum, while more \u201caspirational\u201d brands are suffering from slowing Chinese demand, normalization in the US, and the weight of a strong dollar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":917,"featured_media":174721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"%%post_title%% %%sep%% %%sitetitle%%","_seopress_titles_desc":"The results of luxury players for the first six months of fiscal year 2025 confirm the strong resilience of ultra-luxury and jewelry.","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[24784,23046,24005,24134,25206],"class_list":["post-174717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-columns","tag-finance-en","tag-horlogerie-joaillerie-en","tag-mode-et-maroquinerie-en","tag-resultats-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/917"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174717\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/174721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luxus-plus.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}