According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, France is the country that has experienced the strongest post-covid economic rebound thanks to household consumption.
France is the country that has experienced the strongest post-Covid-19 economic rebound thanks to household consumption, according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group published on Friday, July 24, 2020.
This is good news for the French, even if it needs to be tempered, because the crisis is still present.
To make this analysis, the consulting firm has developed from the tools of artificial intelligence an index to measure in real time, the magnitude of the rebound (“recovery gap“) from a level 100 pre-crisis.
This analysis was carried out for nine countries including France, Germany, the United States, Japan and Brazil.
“France is the yellow jersey of the rebound”.
On 12 July, France and Germany scored 94, very close to pre-crisis levels, followed by Italy (91), Spain (90), with the UK lagging behind with a score of 76.
“Today, France is the yellow jersey of the rebound. As much as it was the European country that had fallen the most, it’s the one that’s coming back up the fastest.” Sylvain Duranton, World Director of BCG GAMMA, the firm’s data science arm, explains.
Consumption in France is rebounding by 45 points after dropping 49 points.
However, this is not the case in Germany, which fell 32 points and rebounded 27 points.
This is justified by a lack of strict containment of its population.
In addition, in France, the automobile sector, which had fallen due to the health crisis, is also recovering further, reaching 95 points. Clearly on the rise unlike its European neighbours which only reach 90 on average, in particular thanks to the government’s recovery plan established on 22 July 2020, the study points out.
Caution is called for
It should also be noted that the next two months are going to be a pivotal period for European economies, as activity levels are between 90% and 95% of what they were pre-Covid.
“We are observing a slight slowdown in the recovery: either we will continue to grow to reach, or even exceed, pre-crisis levels before the end of the year, or on the contrary, with fears of a resumption of the epidemic, of partial reconfinement, we will see these indicators fall,” emphasises Sylvain Duranton.
In the United States, consumption is falling. Although the country has not experienced widespread containment, it has seen a drop of 86 points, less than in Europe.
That said, there is no longer any sign of an upturn in activity, and consumption is even showing worrying signs of falling off, while Japan is in a situation of complete stagnation.
China is the only country to have returned to its pre-Covid level of activity: “In this country, all sectors (…) are growing compared to the same period last year“. With the exception of the transport and logistics sector, which is dependent on the recovery of exports and imports, notes the BCG study.
Featured Photo : La Défense, Paris © Wikipédia
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